The reason most people want to program for the web is that they’re not smart enough to do anything else
You hope everything doesn't "move to the web"? Wake the hell up! It's already happened!
if you dismiss web apps, you dismiss a lot of clever, well written programs right out of the gate.
I also think that there is still a very bright future for desktop apps as well. As it stands now, there is no Web Office System that even comes close to comparing to Open Office, let alone Microsoft Office. There are always going to be ERP Systems and other Business Development Tools that will need to be installable on the Desktop.